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Minai vs Ruh Lviv — Premier League 2019

Minai
Minai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
4/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stadion Mynai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai35%
×Draw29%
Ruh Lviv36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
1.12
Ruh Lviv
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 82 away

creates per match

Minai
0.87
Ruh Lviv
0.91

allows per match

Minai
1.38
Ruh Lviv
1.37

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Ruh Lviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Minai or draw
64%
Minai or Ruh Lviv
71%
Draw or Ruh Lviv
65%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
14%
Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
67%
Minai 2+ goals
31%
Minai 3+ goals
10%
Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
68%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
32%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
49%
Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Minai scores more
35%
level
29%
Ruh Lviv scores more
36%

Ruh Lviv at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ruh Lviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minai vs Ruh Lviv

Minai and Ruh Lviv drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mynai in Mynai.