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Ruh Lviv vs Minai — Premier League 2019

Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Minai
Minai
10/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ruh Lviv50%
×Draw27%
Minai23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Lviv
1.44
Minai
0.88

Ruh Lviv creates 64% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ruh Lviv
1.15
Minai
0.60

allows per match

Ruh Lviv
1.16
Minai
1.72

finishing

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par
Minai+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Lviv ↓

Minai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ruh Lviv or draw
77%
Ruh Lviv or Minai
73%
Draw or Minai
50%

Winning margin

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
25%
Minai wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
76%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
42%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
18%
Minai 1+ goals
59%
Minai 2+ goals
22%
Minai 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
69%
Minai (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Lviv at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Minai away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Lviv attack 1.15 + Minai defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Minai attack 0.60 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ruh Lviv scores more
50%
level
27%
Minai scores more
23%

Ruh Lviv at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ruh Lviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruh Lviv vs Minai

Ruh Lviv and Minai drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.