Ruh Lviv 2–0 Chornomorets: Result & Stats

Ruh Lviv

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chornomorets

5/19/2024

Premier League · Round 29Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ruh Lviv43%

×Draw26%

Chornomorets31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruh LvivExpected goals in this matchChornomorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

Ruh Lviv

1.42

Chornomorets

1.15

Ruh Lviv creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 53 away

1.15

creates per match

1.13

1.16

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ruh Lviv

1.15

Chornomorets

1.13

allows per match

Ruh Lviv

1.16

Chornomorets

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Chornomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Lviv ↓

Chornomorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ruh Lviv or draw

69%

Ruh Lviv or Chornomorets

74%

Draw or Chornomorets

57%

Winning margin

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

21%

Chornomorets wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

76%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

41%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

17%

Chornomorets 1+ goals

68%

Chornomorets 2+ goals

32%

Chornomorets 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

59%

Chornomorets (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Lviv at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Chornomorets away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Lviv attack 1.15 + Chornomorets defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chornomorets attack 1.13 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ruh Lviv scores more

43%

level

26%

Chornomorets scores more

31%

Ruh Lviv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ruh Lviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff