Chornomorets 1–3 Rukh Vynnyky: Result & Stats

Chornomorets

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Rukh Vynnyky

5/29/2023

Premier League · Round 29Stadion Chornomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Chornomorets35%

×Draw28%

Rukh Vynnyky37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChornomoretsExpected goals in this matchRukh Vynnyky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.20

Chornomorets

1.17

Rukh Vynnyky

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 82 away

0.96

creates per match

0.91

1.49

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Chornomorets

0.96

Rukh Vynnyky

0.91

allows per match

Chornomorets

1.49

Rukh Vynnyky

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par

Rukh Vynnyky+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Rukh Vynnyky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw

63%

Chornomorets or Rukh Vynnyky

72%

Draw or Rukh Vynnyky

65%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+

15%

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals

69%

Chornomorets 2+ goals

33%

Chornomorets 3+ goals

11%

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

70%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

34%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)

49%

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

Rukh Vynnyky away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 0.96 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rukh Vynnyky attack 0.91 + Chornomorets defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chornomorets scores more

35%

level

28%

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

37%

Rukh Vynnyky at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff