Chornomorets 2–3 Ruh Lviv: Result & Stats

Chornomorets

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ruh Lviv

11/12/2023

Premier League · Round 14Stadion Chornomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Chornomorets35%

×Draw28%

Ruh Lviv37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChornomoretsExpected goals in this matchRuh Lviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.20

Chornomorets

1.17

Ruh Lviv

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 82 away

0.96

creates per match

0.91

1.49

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Chornomorets

0.96

Ruh Lviv

0.91

allows per match

Chornomorets

1.49

Ruh Lviv

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chornomorets+0.00on par

Ruh Lviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets ↓

Ruh Lviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chornomorets or draw

63%

Chornomorets or Ruh Lviv

72%

Draw or Ruh Lviv

65%

Winning margin

Chornomorets wins by 2+

15%

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chornomorets 1+ goals

69%

Chornomorets 2+ goals

33%

Chornomorets 3+ goals

11%

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals

70%

Ruh Lviv 2+ goals

34%

Ruh Lviv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets (draw refunded)

49%

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

Ruh Lviv away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets attack 0.96 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Chornomorets defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chornomorets scores more

35%

level

28%

Ruh Lviv scores more

37%

Ruh Lviv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ruh Lviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff