Rudes 1–1 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats | First NL

Rudes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Zapresic

9/5/2020

First NL · Round 2Igralište NK Rudeš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rudes50%

×Draw26%

Inter Zapresic25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RudesExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Rudes

1.52

Inter Zapresic

0.99

Rudes creates 54% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 32 away

1.71

creates per match

1.19

0.80

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rudes

1.71

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

Rudes

0.80

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rudes or draw

75%

Rudes or Inter Zapresic

74%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

50%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+

25%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals

78%

Rudes 2+ goals

45%

Rudes 3+ goals

20%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

63%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

26%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)

67%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 91 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 1.71 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Rudes defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rudes scores more

50%

level

26%

Inter Zapresic scores more

25%

Rudes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rudes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff