Inter Zapresic 0–3 Rudes: Result & Stats | HNL

Inter Zapresic

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rudes

I. Tatomirović 85' (OG)

T. Štrkalj 44' (pen)

N. Pejović 36'

5/9/2019

HNL · Round 33Stadion ŠRC Zaprešić (Zaprešić)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Inter Zapresic47%

×Draw24%

Rudes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ZapresicExpected goals in this matchRudes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.32

Inter Zapresic

1.72

Rudes

1.32

Inter Zapresic creates 30% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

1.08

creates per match

0.61

2.03

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Inter Zapresic

1.08

Rudes

0.61

allows per match

Inter Zapresic

2.03

Rudes

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

Rudes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw

70%

Inter Zapresic or Rudes

76%

Draw or Rudes

53%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

25%

Rudes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

82%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

51%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

25%

Rudes 1+ goals

73%

Rudes 2+ goals

38%

Rudes 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

61%

Rudes (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

Rudes away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.08 + Rudes defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.72

Rudes attack 0.61 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more

47%

level

24%

Rudes scores more

30%

Inter Zapresic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Bosec

30'

32'

N. Pejovic

36'

N. Pejović

44'

T. ŠtrkaljPenalty

71'

I. Tatomirovic

85'

I. TatomirovićOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff