Inter Zapresic 1–0 Rudes: Result & Stats | First NL

Inter Zapresic

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rudes

M. Uzelac 17'

3/4/2022

First NL · Round 19Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic42%

×Draw28%

Rudes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ZapresicExpected goals in this matchRudes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Inter Zapresic

1.27

Rudes

1.02

Inter Zapresic creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

1.41

creates per match

1.21

0.84

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Inter Zapresic

1.41

Rudes

1.21

allows per match

Inter Zapresic

0.84

Rudes

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

Rudes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw

70%

Inter Zapresic or Rudes

72%

Draw or Rudes

58%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

19%

Rudes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

72%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

36%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

14%

Rudes 1+ goals

64%

Rudes 2+ goals

27%

Rudes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

59%

Rudes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

Rudes away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + Rudes defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rudes attack 1.21 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more

42%

level

28%

Rudes scores more

30%

Inter Zapresic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

45+1'

46'

54'

60'

M. Kanceljak← D. Magdić

72'

F. Borovac← L. Marković

72'

R. Brajković← A. Latković

74'

N. Rak

85'

I. Stjepanović← J. Bašić

86'

F. Soldo← I. Pejić

89'

B. Brajkovic

90+4'

F. Soldo

90+4'

L. Dumančić← M. Uzelac

Inter

Rudes

1

Mustapić

25

Boršić

16

Ćosić

26

▼

17

14

6

8

11

▼

Latković

13

▼

Marković

9

▼

1

6

3

33

4

20

29

16

▼

Magdić

25

⚽

▼

Uzelac

11

Banovec

23

▼

Pejić

Manager: B. Perković

60'▲M. Kanceljak←▼D. Magdić

86'▲F. Soldo←▼I. Pejić

90+4'▲L. Dumančić←▼M. Uzelac

Inter Zapresic substitutes

9Kanceljak27Soldo15Dumančić8Jajalo10Rak12Križanović13Vukasović31Kovač30Rudonja

Manager: I. Landeka

46'▲M. Sekulić←▼K. Majić

72'▲F. Borovac←▼L. Marković

72'▲R. Brajković←▼A. Latković

85'▲I. Stjepanović←▼J. Bašić

Rudes substitutes

10Sekulić22Borovac20Brajković24Stjepanović4Popovic2Jergović12Kralj18Barić5Doljanin

First NL: Inter Zapresic 1–0 Rudes

Inter Zapresic beat Rudes 1-0 in First NL on March 4, 2022.

Goals: M. Uzelac (17').

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.

Inter Zapresic vs Rudes — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Inter Zapresic 1–0 Rudes