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Rudes vs Inter Zapresic — HNL 2018

Rudes
Rudes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
3/8/2019HNLHNL · Round 24Stadion Kranjčevićeva (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rudes37%
×Draw24%
Inter Zapresic39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudes
1.52
Inter Zapresic
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rudes
0.72
Inter Zapresic
0.92

allows per match

Rudes
2.22
Inter Zapresic
2.31

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rudes or draw
61%
Rudes or Inter Zapresic
76%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
63%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+
18%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals
78%
Rudes 2+ goals
45%
Rudes 3+ goals
20%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
79%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
46%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)
49%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.22 · 36 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 0.72 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Inter Zapresic attack 0.92 + Rudes defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rudes scores more
37%
level
24%
Inter Zapresic scores more
39%

Inter Zapresic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudes vs Inter Zapresic

Rudes beat Inter Zapresic 2-0 in HNL on March 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva (Zagreb).