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Rudar vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fužinar
Fužinar
5/7/20222. SNL2. SNL · Round 28Štadion Ob Jezeru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Rudar43%
×Draw25%
Fužinar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.56
Fužinar
1.30

Rudar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 65 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.31
Fužinar
1.37

allows per match

Rudar
1.23
Fužinar
1.82

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Fužinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
68%
Rudar or Fužinar
75%
Draw or Fužinar
57%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
22%
Fužinar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
79%
Rudar 2+ goals
46%
Rudar 3+ goals
21%
Fužinar 1+ goals
73%
Fužinar 2+ goals
37%
Fužinar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
58%
Fužinar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 86 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.31 + Fužinar defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fužinar attack 1.37 + Rudar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rudar scores more
43%
level
25%
Fužinar scores more
32%

Rudar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Fužinar

Rudar beat Fužinar 3-1 in 2. SNL on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Štadion Ob Jezeru in Velenje.