Fužinar 4–2 Rudar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Fužinar

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Rudar

M. Carl 52'

D. Ikenna 45'

G. Gaberšek Rotovnik 36'

A. Sîntean 28' (pen)

U. Majcenovič 74'

A. Bloudek 17'

8/13/2023

2. SNL · Round 4Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fužinar44%

×Draw24%

Rudar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FužinarExpected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.43

Fužinar

1.70

Rudar

1.43

Fužinar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 86 away

1.61

creates per match

1.27

1.58

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Fužinar

1.61

Rudar

1.27

allows per match

Fužinar

1.58

Rudar

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Rudar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw

68%

Fužinar or Rudar

76%

Draw or Rudar

56%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+

23%

Rudar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals

82%

Fužinar 2+ goals

51%

Fužinar 3+ goals

24%

Rudar 1+ goals

76%

Rudar 2+ goals

42%

Rudar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)

58%

Rudar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.61 + Rudar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rudar attack 1.27 + Fužinar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fužinar scores more

44%

level

24%

Rudar scores more

32%

Fužinar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Bloudek

28'

A. SînteanPenalty

36'

45'

52'

54'

54'

D. Redžić← A. Vošnjak

57'

M. Turkus

62'

D. Vukolić← A. Sîntean

62'

M. Bajraj← M. Lakovšek

62'

M. Kvesić← J. Krevh

67'

Ž. Florjanc← M. Bakula

67'

N. Harbaš← K. Plantak

72'

U. Majcenovič← A. Bloudek

74'

U. Majcenovič

78'

D. Adrović← D. Ikenna

83'

M. Kotnik← M. Carl

Fužinar

Rudar

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Carl

⚽

▼

Ikenna

Manager: A. Tomažič

62'▲D. Vukolić←▼A. Sîntean

62'▲M. Bajraj←▼M. Lakovšek

62'▲M. Kvesić←▼J. Krevh

78'▲D. Adrović←▼D. Ikenna

83'▲M. Kotnik←▼M. Carl

Fužinar substitutes

VukolićBajrajKvesićAdrovićKotnikKotnikZaložnikGrilcMarčič

Manager: A. Zildžović

54'▲D. Pešić←▼S. Džumhur

54'▲D. Redžić←▼A. Vošnjak

67'▲Ž. Florjanc←▼M. Bakula

67'▲N. Harbaš←▼K. Plantak

72'▲U. Majcenovič←▼A. Bloudek

Rudar substitutes

PešićRedžićFlorjancHarbašMajcenovičKadrićBiukTurinekKokić

2. SNL: Fužinar 4–2 Rudar

Fužinar beat Rudar 4-2 in 2. SNL on August 13, 2023.

Goals: A. Bloudek (17'), A. Sîntean (28' pen), G. Gaberšek Rotovnik (36'), D. Ikenna (45'), M. Carl (52'), U. Majcenovič (74').

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Ravne na Koroškem.

Fužinar vs Rudar — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Fužinar 4–2 Rudar