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Fužinar vs Rudar — 2. SNL 2019

Fužinar
Fužinar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rudar
Rudar
4/29/20232. SNL2. SNL · Round 27Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fužinar44%
×Draw24%
Rudar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fužinar
1.70
Rudar
1.43

Fužinar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 86 away

creates per match

Fužinar
1.61
Rudar
1.27

allows per match

Fužinar
1.58
Rudar
1.79

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw
68%
Fužinar or Rudar
76%
Draw or Rudar
56%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+
23%
Rudar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals
82%
Fužinar 2+ goals
51%
Fužinar 3+ goals
24%
Rudar 1+ goals
76%
Rudar 2+ goals
42%
Rudar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)
58%
Rudar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.61 + Rudar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rudar attack 1.27 + Fužinar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fužinar scores more
44%
level
24%
Rudar scores more
32%

Fužinar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fužinar vs Rudar

Fužinar and Rudar drew 2-2 in 2. SNL on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Ravne na Koroškem.