Rubio NU 0–2 Olimpia: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olimpia

S. Ferreira 56', 16'

4/12/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 16Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rubio NU22%

×Draw25%

Olimpia53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.59

Rubio NU

0.93

Olimpia

1.59

Olimpia creates 71% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 97 away

0.91

creates per match

1.76

1.43

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Rubio NU

0.91

Olimpia

1.76

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.43

Olimpia

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

47%

Rubio NU or Olimpia

75%

Draw or Olimpia

78%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

7%

Olimpia wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

61%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

24%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

7%

Olimpia 1+ goals

80%

Olimpia 2+ goals

47%

Olimpia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

29%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.94 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 0.91 + Olimpia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Olimpia attack 1.76 + Rubio NU defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rubio NU scores more

22%

level

25%

Olimpia scores more

53%

Olimpia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

F. Fragueda

Rubio NU · G

8.2

Match Events

16'

S. Ferreira↳ R. Sanchez

45'

Carlos Gimenez

46'

E. Perez← S. Ruiz Diaz

46'

O. Alfonso← P. Alvarez Benitez

56'

S. Ferreira

61'

A. Silva← H. Quintana

62'

G. Manzur← R. Rojas

62'

J. J. Gimenez Delgado← L. Montiel

62'

H. Sandoval← S. Ferreira

66'

E. Delmas← R. Lezcano

73'

E. Sarquis← M. Roldan

78'

A. F. Franco Zayas← R. Sanchez

79'

R. Benitez← I. Leguizamon

90+5'

Estiven PérezPenalty confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RubioOlimpia

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots23

3Corners5

6Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots23

2On Target10

7Off Target6

3Blocked7

5Inside Box18

7Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

305Total Passes586

234Accurate Passes510

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3