Olimpia 3–1 Rubio NU: Result & Stats | League #252

Olimpia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rubio NU

W. Mendieta 81', 57'

J. Benítez 45+1'

M. Pérez 72'

10/1/2016

League #252 · Round 13Estadio Manuel Ferreira (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olimpia41%

×Draw29%

Rubio NU30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.00

Olimpia

1.23

Rubio NU

1.00

Olimpia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Olimpia

1.25

Rubio NU

1.00

allows per match

Olimpia

1.00

Rubio NU

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

70%

Olimpia or Rubio NU

71%

Draw or Rubio NU

59%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

18%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

71%

Olimpia 2+ goals

35%

Olimpia 3+ goals

13%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

63%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

26%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

58%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.25 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rubio NU attack 1.00 + Olimpia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia scores more

41%

level

29%

Rubio NU scores more

30%

Olimpia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

57'

72'

81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff