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Rotor Volgograd vs Ural — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
Ural
Ural
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Volgograd Arena
Big match
43%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
43%29%28%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rotor Volgograd43%
×Draw29%
Ural28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.23
Ural
0.94

Rotor Volgograd creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.31
Ural
1.21

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.67
Ural
1.15

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
72%
Rotor Volgograd or Ural
71%
Draw or Ural
57%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
19%
Ural wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
71%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
35%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
13%
Ural 1+ goals
61%
Ural 2+ goals
24%
Ural 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
60%
Ural (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.67 · 36 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.31 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ural attack 1.21 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
43%
level
29%
Ural scores more
28%

Rotor Volgograd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Ural
LDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotor Volgograd face Ural (First League)

First League returns with Rotor Volgograd hosting Ural. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rotor Volgograd host Ural at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.