Röthis 6–1 Dornbirner SV: Result & Stats

Röthis

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Dornbirner SV

C. Domig 90+3', 11' (pen)

M. Wieser 86' (pen)

F. Schöch 52'

L. Berthold 34'

T. Hartmann 2'

A. Gagić 27'

5/26/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 27Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Röthis47%

×Draw22%

Dornbirner SV30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RöthisExpected goals in this matchDornbirner SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.52

Röthis

1.94

Dornbirner SV

1.52

Röthis creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 51 away

1.64

creates per match

1.57

1.47

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Röthis

1.64

Dornbirner SV

1.57

allows per match

Röthis

1.47

Dornbirner SV

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röthis+0.00on par

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röthis ↓

Dornbirner SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Röthis or draw

70%

Röthis or Dornbirner SV

78%

Draw or Dornbirner SV

53%

Winning margin

Röthis wins by 2+

27%

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Röthis 1+ goals

86%

Röthis 2+ goals

58%

Röthis 3+ goals

30%

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

78%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

45%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Röthis (draw refunded)

61%

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röthis at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röthis attack 1.64 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + Röthis defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Röthis scores more

47%

level

22%

Dornbirner SV scores more

30%

Röthis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

T. Hartmann

11'

C. DomigPenalty

27'

A. Gagić

34'

L. Berthold

46'

E. Yüzüak← T. Trailovic

52'

F. Schöch

62'

Junior Cordeiro← C. Nagel

62'

K. Kabal← B. Maric-Pranjic

63'

M. Wieser← A. Rexhaj

69'

F. Domig← L. Berthold

75'

C. Knoll← J. Mair

75'

S. Breuss← F. Schöch

75'

D. Nachbaur← J. Bokanovic

86'

M. WieserPenalty

90+3'

C. Domig

Röthis

Dornbirner

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Schöch

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Özkan

63'▲M. Wieser←▼A. Rexhaj

69'▲F. Domig←▼L. Berthold

75'▲C. Knoll←▼J. Mair

75'▲S. Breuss←▼F. Schöch

Röthis substitutes

WieserDomigKnollBreussFleisch

Manager: R. Spiegel

46'▲E. Yüzüak←▼T. Trailovic

62'▲Junior Cordeiro←▼C. Nagel

62'▲K. Kabal←▼B. Maric-Pranjic

75'▲D. Nachbaur←▼J. Bokanovic

Dornbirner SV substitutes

YüzüakCordeiroKabalNachbaurMasnikosaMathis