Dornbirner SV 1–1 Röthis: Result & Stats

Dornbirner SV

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Röthis

10/4/2025

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 8EMMA & EUGEN Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dornbirner SV34%

×Draw24%

Röthis42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dornbirner SVExpected goals in this matchRöthis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.66

Dornbirner SV

1.47

Röthis

1.66

Röthis creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

2.00

1.31

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Dornbirner SV

1.85

Röthis

2.00

allows per match

Dornbirner SV

1.31

Röthis

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Röthis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirner SV ↓

Röthis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dornbirner SV or draw

58%

Dornbirner SV or Röthis

76%

Draw or Röthis

66%

Winning margin

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

16%

Röthis wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

77%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

43%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

18%

Röthis 1+ goals

81%

Röthis 2+ goals

49%

Röthis 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

45%

Röthis (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirner SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Röthis away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirner SV attack 1.85 + Röthis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Röthis attack 2.00 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dornbirner SV scores more

34%

level

24%

Röthis scores more

42%

Röthis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff