Dornbirner SV 2–0 Röthis: Result & Stats

Dornbirner SV

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Röthis

J. Pfahl 86'

C. Nagel 38'

10/15/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 12EMMA & EUGEN Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dornbirner SV44%

×Draw22%

Röthis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dornbirner SVExpected goals in this matchRöthis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.69

Dornbirner SV

1.94

Röthis

1.69

Dornbirner SV creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.61

creates per match

1.45

1.94

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Dornbirner SV

1.61

Röthis

1.45

allows per match

Dornbirner SV

1.94

Röthis

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Röthis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirner SV ↓

Röthis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dornbirner SV or draw

66%

Dornbirner SV or Röthis

78%

Draw or Röthis

56%

Winning margin

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

24%

Röthis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

86%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

58%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

30%

Röthis 1+ goals

82%

Röthis 2+ goals

50%

Röthis 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

56%

Röthis (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirner SV at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

Röthis away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirner SV attack 1.61 + Röthis defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Röthis attack 1.45 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dornbirner SV scores more

44%

level

22%

Röthis scores more

34%

Dornbirner SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dornbirner SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

C. Nagel

56'

J. Mair← F. Scheichl

56'

M. Sohler← L. Berthold

64'

D. Nachbaur← H. Cansiz

82'

L. Christof← T. Hartmann

83'

F. Kilzer← C. Nagel

83'

K. Kabal← J. Bokanovic

86'

J. Pfahl

88'

B. Maric-Pranjic← J. Pfahl

Dornbirner

Röthis

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Spiegel

64'▲D. Nachbaur←▼H. Cansiz

83'▲F. Kilzer←▼C. Nagel

83'▲K. Kabal←▼J. Bokanovic

88'▲B. Maric-Pranjic←▼J. Pfahl

Dornbirner SV substitutes

NachbaurKilzerKabalMaric-PranjicNadraiKlammer

Manager: D. Visintainer

56'▲J. Mair←▼F. Scheichl

56'▲M. Sohler←▼L. Berthold

82'▲L. Christof←▼T. Hartmann

Röthis substitutes

MairSohlerChristofFleisch