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Rotherham vs Reading — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Reading
Reading
S. Nombe 25'
D. Kyerewaa 47'
4/25/2026League OneLeague One · Round 45Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rotherham36%
×Draw24%
Reading40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.52
Reading
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.29
Reading
1.49

allows per match

Rotherham
1.72
Reading
1.76

finishing

Rotherham-0.15scores less
Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
60%
Rotherham or Reading
76%
Draw or Reading
64%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
17%
Reading wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
78%
Rotherham 2+ goals
45%
Rotherham 3+ goals
20%
Reading 1+ goals
80%
Reading 2+ goals
47%
Reading 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
48%
Reading (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.72 · 7 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.29 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reading attack 1.49 + Rotherham defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotherham scores more
36%
level
24%
Reading scores more
40%

Reading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
D. KyerewaaReadingReading · F
7.6

Match Events

14'
Emmanuel Adegboyega
15'
Denzel Hall
25'
S. Nombe↳ D. Gore
47'
D. Kyerewaa↳ P. Lane
62'
A. Martha← D. Hall
62'
C. Lee← D. Yearwood
76'
J. Clarke← J. Holmes
80'
Paddy Lane
81'
E. Osho← P. Lane
84'
M. Ritchie← J. R. Dorsett A.
87'
Haydon Roberts
88'
S. Patton← K. Ehibhatiomhan
89'
K. Abrefa← H. Roberts
90'
Jamal Baptiste

Possession

44%Rotherham

Shots

15Rotherham

Pass accuracy

48%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamReading
Overview
44%Possession56%
15Total Shots6
1.56Expected Goals (xG)0.89
3Corners2
17Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots6
3On Target3
7Off Target2
5Blocked1
6Inside Box6
9Outside Box0
Passing
44%Possession56%
258Total Passes343
177Accurate Passes256
69%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Reading

Rotherham and Reading drew 1-1 in League One on April 25, 2026.

Goals: S. Nombe (25'), D. Kyerewaa (47').

Reading controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.