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Rotherham vs Reading — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reading
Reading
H. Odoffin 56'
S. Nombe 49'
L. Wing 26'
10/5/2024League OneLeague One · Round 10AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rotherham35%
×Draw23%
Reading42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.52
Reading
1.70

Reading creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.25
Reading
1.55

allows per match

Rotherham
1.85
Reading
1.78

finishing

Rotherham-0.08on par
Reading+0.12scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
58%
Rotherham or Reading
77%
Draw or Reading
65%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
16%
Reading wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
78%
Rotherham 2+ goals
45%
Rotherham 3+ goals
20%
Reading 1+ goals
82%
Reading 2+ goals
51%
Reading 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
45%
Reading (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.85 · 6 matches

Reading away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.25 + Reading defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reading attack 1.55 + Rotherham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more
35%
level
23%
Reading scores more
42%

Reading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. PowellRotherhamRotherham · M
7.9

Match Events

26'
L. Wing
28'
A. Garcia← K. Abrefa
44'
Andre Garcia
47'
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
49'
S. Nombe↳ J. Powell
56'
H. Odoffin↳ J. Rafferty
57'
Sam Smith
61'
Reece James
65'
C. Bramall← R. James
68'
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
68'
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
72'
C. Savage← B. Elliott
72'
J. Wareham← C. Campbell
77'
Cameron Dawson
82'
S. McWilliams← C. Tiéhi
82'
J. Hugill← J. Clarke-Harris
83'
Michael Craig
88'
J. Holmes← M. Wilks
88'
A. MacDonald← H. Odoffin
90+2'
Sam Nombe
90'
H. Dean← M. Craig
90'
A. Akande← A. Garcia

Possession

47%Rotherham

Shots

17Rotherham

Pass accuracy

51%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamReading
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots10
9Corners5
11Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots10
6On Target1
5Off Target5
6Blocked4
11Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
295Total Passes345
219Accurate Passes250
74%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls15
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
7Offsides1

League One: Rotherham 2–1 Reading

Rotherham beat Reading 2-1 in League One on October 5, 2024.

Goals: L. Wing (26'), S. Nombe (49'), H. Odoffin (56').

Reading controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.