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Reading vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
T. Fornah 90'
A. Carroll 52'
L. Peltier 37'
2/14/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Reading50%
×Draw25%
Rotherham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.56
Rotherham
1.01

Reading creates 54% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 90 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Rotherham
1.74

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw
75%
Reading or Rotherham
75%
Draw or Rotherham
50%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
26%
Rotherham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
79%
Reading 2+ goals
46%
Reading 3+ goals
21%
Rotherham 1+ goals
64%
Rotherham 2+ goals
27%
Rotherham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
67%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reading scores more
50%
level
25%
Rotherham scores more
25%

Reading at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
A. CarrollReadingReading · F
8.9

Match Events

37'
L. Peltier↳ C. Coventry
41'
N. Guinness-Walker← A. Baba
46'
O. Azeez← J. Hoilett
46'
T. Fornah← S. Long
52'
A. Carroll↳ O. Azeez
60'
Andy Yiadom
75'
C. Ogbene← J. Hugill
75'
W. Harding← L. Peltier
78'
S. Ferguson← O. Rathbone
90+6'
Andy Carroll
90+7'
S. Dann← T. Ince
90+2'
T. Eaves← H. Odoffin
90+2'
G. Kelly← T. Fosu
90'
T. Fornah↳ A. Carroll

Possession

53%Reading

Shots

13Reading

Pass accuracy

52%Reading

Statistics

ReadingRotherham
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots13
4Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots13
3On Target1
5Off Target8
5Blocked4
11Inside Box7
2Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
346Total Passes299
251Accurate Passes203
73%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides5

Championship: Reading 2–1 Rotherham

Reading beat Rotherham 2-1 in Championship on February 14, 2023.

Goals: L. Peltier (37'), A. Carroll (52'), T. Fornah (90').

Reading controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.