Rotherham 4–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

K. Vassell 90+2'

J. Ward 77' (OG)

D. Butler 68' (OG)

R. Wood 50'

12/29/2019

League One · Round 24AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Rotherham44%

×Draw24%

Peterborough33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.44

Rotherham

1.69

Peterborough

1.44

Rotherham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.45

creates per match

1.24

1.63

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Rotherham

1.45

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Rotherham

1.63

Peterborough

1.92

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.27scores less

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

67%

Rotherham or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

56%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

23%

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

82%

Rotherham 2+ goals

50%

Rotherham 3+ goals

24%

Peterborough 1+ goals

76%

Peterborough 2+ goals

42%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

57%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.45 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Rotherham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotherham scores more

44%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

33%

Rotherham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Wood

Rotherham · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

R. Wood← C. Robertson

46'

47'

50'

54'

54'

57'

68'

D. ButlerOwn goal

69'

K. Vassell← F. Ladapo

73'

Joe Mattock

77'

M. Smith← C. Morris

77'

J. WardOwn goal

78'

Ivan Toney

82'

M. Eisa← I. Toney

90+2'

K. Vassell↳ M. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamPeterborough

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots3

11Corners1

12Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots3

6On Target1

8Off Target2

4Blocked0

11Inside Box2

7Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

301Total Passes273

193Accurate Passes152

64%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides3