Rotherham 2–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Peterborough

C. Humphreys 66'

S. Nombe 36'

A. Odoh 1'

5/3/2025

League One · Round 46AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rotherham41%

×Draw26%

Peterborough32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.19

Rotherham

1.38

Peterborough

1.19

Rotherham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

1.15

creates per match

1.13

1.26

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rotherham

1.15

Peterborough

1.13

allows per match

Rotherham

1.26

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

68%

Rotherham or Peterborough

74%

Draw or Peterborough

59%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

19%

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

75%

Rotherham 2+ goals

40%

Rotherham 3+ goals

16%

Peterborough 1+ goals

70%

Peterborough 2+ goals

33%

Peterborough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

56%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Peterborough attack 1.13 + Rotherham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotherham scores more

41%

level

26%

Peterborough scores more

32%

Rotherham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Powell

Rotherham · M

8.0

Match Events

1'

A. Odoh↳ H. Mills

17'

Ryan De Havilland

28'

Abraham Odoh

36'

S. Nombe

61'

J. Dornelly← C. Conn-Clarke

61'

R. Jones← G. Lindgren

62'

S. McWilliams← D. Gore

62'

J. Holmes← P. Mpanzu

63'

James Dornelly

66'

C. Humphreys↳ J. Powell

67'

Mallik Wilks

67'

A. Changunda← H. Mills

76'

George Nevett

81'

J. Andrews← J. Katongo

87'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← M. Wilks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamPeterborough

Overview

44%Possession56%

22Total Shots11

6Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots11

5On Target3

11Off Target5

6Blocked3

14Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

376Total Passes489

291Accurate Passes403

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0