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Peterborough vs Rotherham — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Rotherham
Rotherham
E. Fernandez 53'
J. Rafferty 50' (OG)
J. Dornelly 17'
J. Clarke-Harris 45+1'
M. Wilks 23'
S. Nombe 19'
10/12/2024League OneLeague One · Round 11Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Peterborough52%
×Draw24%
Rotherham24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.75
Rotherham
1.11

Peterborough creates 58% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.87
Rotherham
0.89

allows per match

Peterborough
1.33
Rotherham
1.63

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
76%
Peterborough or Rotherham
76%
Draw or Rotherham
48%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
29%
Rotherham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
83%
Peterborough 2+ goals
52%
Peterborough 3+ goals
25%
Rotherham 1+ goals
67%
Rotherham 2+ goals
30%
Rotherham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
68%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Rotherham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rotherham attack 0.89 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peterborough scores more
52%
level
24%
Rotherham scores more
24%

Peterborough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. SparkesPeterboroughPeterborough · D
8.7

Match Events

17'
J. Dornelly↳ K. Poku
19'
S. Nombe
22'
Oscar Wallin
23'
M. Wilks↳ C. Tiéhi
32'
James Dornelly
35'
Mallik Wilks
45+1'
J. Clarke-Harris↳ S. Nombe
46'
J. Hugill← J. Clarke-Harris
48'
Joel Randall
50'
J. RaffertyOwn goal
53'
E. Fernandez↳ J. Sparkes
64'
C. Bramall← M. Wilks
76'
J. Holmes← S. Nombe
79'
D. Ajiboye← J. Dornelly
89'
B. Ihionvien← M. Mothersille
90'
E. Osong← C. Tiéhi

Possession

76%Peterborough

Shots

13Peterborough

Pass accuracy

57%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughRotherham
Overview
76%Possession24%
13Total Shots11
8Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots11
6On Target6
2Off Target3
5Blocked2
9Inside Box10
4Outside Box1
Passing
76%Possession24%
633Total Passes194
578Accurate Passes133
91%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Rotherham

Peterborough and Rotherham drew 3-3 in League One on October 12, 2024.

Goals: J. Dornelly (17'), S. Nombe (19'), M. Wilks (23'), J. Clarke-Harris (45+1'), J. Rafferty (50' o.g.), E. Fernandez (53').

Peterborough controlled possession (76%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.