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Rotherham vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
14:00
Northampton
Northampton
4/17/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Aesseal New York Stadium
Big match
41%
Rotherham
model favours
41%25%33%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham41%
×Draw25%
Northampton33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.49
Northampton
1.31

Rotherham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
67%
Rotherham or Northampton
75%
Draw or Northampton
59%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
20%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
77%
Rotherham 2+ goals
44%
Rotherham 3+ goals
19%
Northampton 1+ goals
73%
Northampton 2+ goals
38%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
55%
Northampton (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Northampton attack 1.24 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotherham scores more
41%
level
25%
Northampton scores more
33%

Rotherham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotherham vs Northampton — Match Preview

Rotherham face Northampton on April 17, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rotherham host Northampton at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.