Northampton 1–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

S. Hoskins 26' (pen)

J. Benson 87'

J. Rafferty 71'

10/11/2025

League One · Round 12Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Northampton32%

×Draw25%

Rotherham43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.50

Northampton

1.27

Rotherham

1.50

Rotherham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.35

creates per match

1.12

1.89

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Northampton

1.35

Rotherham

1.12

allows per match

Northampton

1.89

Rotherham

1.18

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.18scores less

Rotherham-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

57%

Northampton or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

68%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Rotherham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

72%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Rotherham 1+ goals

78%

Rotherham 2+ goals

44%

Rotherham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

43%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.35 + Rotherham defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rotherham attack 1.12 + Northampton defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Northampton scores more

32%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

43%

Rotherham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Benson

Rotherham · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

E. Wheatley← J. Vale

26'

S. HoskinsPenalty

35'

38'

45+3'

46'

58'

67'

K. Spence← S. McWilliams

67'

S. Nombe← M. Sherif

71'

J. Rafferty↳ J. Hugill

83'

M. Jacobs← K. Swyer

86'

Ethan Wheatley

87'

J. Benson

90'

J. Wormleighton← J. Perkins

90+1'

L. Kelly← J. Benson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonRotherham

Overview

42%Possession58%

3Total Shots11

4Corners4

8Fouls17

Shots

3Total Shots11

1On Target2

1Off Target9

1Blocked0

3Inside Box9

0Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

274Total Passes373

156Accurate Passes258

57%Pass Accuracy69%

Discipline

8Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1