Rotherham 2–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

E. Adegboyega 84'

H. Gray 58'

T. Eaves 26'

1/27/2026

League One · Round 29Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Rotherham53%

×Draw24%

Northampton23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.07

Rotherham

1.75

Northampton

1.07

Rotherham creates 64% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

1.70

creates per match

0.94

1.21

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Rotherham

1.70

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Rotherham

1.21

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

77%

Rotherham or Northampton

76%

Draw or Northampton

47%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

29%

Northampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

83%

Rotherham 2+ goals

52%

Rotherham 3+ goals

25%

Northampton 1+ goals

66%

Northampton 2+ goals

29%

Northampton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

70%

Northampton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Northampton attack 0.94 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rotherham scores more

53%

level

24%

Northampton scores more

23%

Rotherham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Powell

Rotherham · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

28'

39'

46'

46'

D. Gore← R. James

58'

H. Gray↳ J. Powell

71'

K. Swyer← J. Burroughs

71'

M. Dyche← J. Willis

73'

E. Adegboyega← K. Spence

81'

J. Evans← T. Eaves

82'

M. Jacobs← S. Hoskins

82'

J. Vale← E. List

84'

E. Adegboyega↳ J. Powell

86'

D. Yearwood← S. McWilliams

90+2'

Joe Rafferty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamNorthampton

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots10

13Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target4

7Blocked2

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

332Total Passes217

244Accurate Passes135

73%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2