Northampton 0–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

S. Nombe 65'

P. Mpanzu 22'

4/1/2025

League One · Round 40Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Northampton28%

×Draw24%

Rotherham48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.71

Northampton

1.25

Rotherham

1.71

Rotherham creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.35

creates per match

1.53

1.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Northampton

1.35

Rotherham

1.53

allows per match

Northampton

1.89

Rotherham

1.16

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.18scores less

Rotherham-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

52%

Northampton or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

72%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

12%

Rotherham wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

71%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

13%

Rotherham 1+ goals

82%

Rotherham 2+ goals

51%

Rotherham 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

37%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.35 + Rotherham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rotherham attack 1.53 + Northampton defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Northampton scores more

28%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

48%

Rotherham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

H. Odoffin

Rotherham · D

7.7

Match Events

22'

40'

53'

65'

71'

71'

D. Costelloe← T. Roberts

73'

J. Hugill← L. Sibley

75'

Ben Perry

82'

N. Guinness-Walker← T. Eyoma

82'

J. Clarke-Harris← M. Wilks

84'

Jordan Hugill

90+3'

J. Holmes← S. Nombe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonRotherham

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots15

1Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target6

2Off Target6

3Blocked3

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

318Total Passes270

205Accurate Passes149

64%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

League One: Northampton 0–2 Rotherham

Rotherham beat Northampton 2-0 in League One on April 1, 2025.

Goals: P. Mpanzu (22'), S. Nombe (65').

Northampton controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.

Northampton vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Northampton 0–2 Rotherham