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Rotherham vs Derby — Championship 2025

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
R. Manning 63' (pen)
9/15/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rotherham58%
×Draw22%
Derby20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.95
Derby
1.06

Rotherham creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 55 away

creates per match

Rotherham
2.20
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Rotherham
1.00
Derby
1.69

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
80%
Rotherham or Derby
78%
Draw or Derby
42%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
34%
Derby wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
86%
Rotherham 2+ goals
58%
Rotherham 3+ goals
31%
Derby 1+ goals
65%
Derby 2+ goals
29%
Derby 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
74%
Derby (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.69 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 2.20 + Derby defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Derby attack 1.11 + Rotherham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rotherham scores more
58%
level
22%
Derby scores more
20%

Rotherham at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
R. ManningRotherhamRotherham · M
8.3

Match Events

48'
Richard Wood
58'
Martyn Waghorn
58'
Tom Lawrence
59'
Kyle Vassell
60'
Mason Mount
63'
Richard Keogh
63'
R. ManningPenalty
64'
J. Marriott← M. Waghorn
64'
M. Bennett← F. Jozefzoon
67'
Joe Mattock
71'
J. Taylor← K. Vassell
73'
D. Holmes← T. Huddlestone
78'
J. Proctor← M. Smith
86'
M. Palmer← R. Towell
87'
Bradley Johnson
90'
Jon Taylor

Possession

36%Rotherham

Shots

17Rotherham

Pass accuracy

42%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamDerby
Overview
36%Possession64%
17Total Shots12
9Corners5
15Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots12
6On Target4
8Off Target4
3Blocked4
13Inside Box5
4Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
232Total Passes412
130Accurate Passes320
56%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls12
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Derby

Rotherham beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on September 15, 2018.

Goals: R. Manning (63' pen).

Derby controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at New York Stadium in Rotherham.