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Derby vs Rotherham — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
M. Waghorn 71' (pen), 42', 13' (pen)
D. Holmes 62'
M. Mount 48'
B. Johnson 39'
R. Wood 53'
3/30/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derby65%
×Draw20%
Rotherham14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
2.02
Rotherham
0.82

Derby creates 146% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 3 away

creates per match

Derby
1.36
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Derby
0.98
Rotherham
2.67

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Derby or draw
86%
Derby or Rotherham
80%
Draw or Rotherham
35%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
40%
Rotherham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
87%
Derby 2+ goals
60%
Derby 3+ goals
33%
Rotherham 1+ goals
56%
Rotherham 2+ goals
20%
Rotherham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
82%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.98 · 53 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.36 + Rotherham defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Derby scores more
65%
level
20%
Rotherham scores more
14%

Derby at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. WaghornDerbyDerby · F
8.6

Match Events

13'
M. WaghornPenalty
39'
B. Johnson↳ S. Malone
42'
M. Waghorn↳ D. Holmes
46'
R. Towell← J. Taylor
46'
M. Crooks← B. Wiles
48'
M. Mount↳ J. Bogle
53'
R. Wood↳ J. Newell
62'
D. Holmes↳ M. Mount
71'
M. WaghornPenalty
76'
M. Bennett← M. Mount
76'
A. Cole← S. Malone
78'
A. Forde← J. Yates
81'
J. Marriott← M. Waghorn
90'
Matt Crooks

Possession

68%Derby

Shots

15Derby

Pass accuracy

58%Derby

Statistics

DerbyRotherham
Overview
68%Possession32%
15Total Shots8
1Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots8
7On Target4
7Off Target3
1Blocked1
12Inside Box6
3Outside Box2
Passing
68%Possession32%
562Total Passes262
469Accurate Passes157
83%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Championship: Derby 6–1 Rotherham

Derby beat Rotherham 6-1 in Championship on March 30, 2019.

Goals: M. Waghorn (13' pen, 42', 71' pen), B. Johnson (39'), M. Mount (48'), R. Wood (53'), D. Holmes (62').

Derby controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.