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Derby vs Rotherham — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
J. Lindsay 86'
1/16/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derby65%
×Draw20%
Rotherham14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
2.02
Rotherham
0.82

Derby creates 146% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 3 away

creates per match

Derby
1.36
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Derby
0.98
Rotherham
2.67

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Derby or draw
86%
Derby or Rotherham
80%
Draw or Rotherham
35%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
40%
Rotherham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
87%
Derby 2+ goals
60%
Derby 3+ goals
33%
Rotherham 1+ goals
56%
Rotherham 2+ goals
20%
Rotherham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
82%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.98 · 53 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.36 + Rotherham defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Derby scores more
65%
level
20%
Rotherham scores more
14%

Derby at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
J. BlackmanRotherhamRotherham · G
7.9

Match Events

28'
Lee Buchanan
38'
Krystian Bielik
40'
Ben Wiles
67'
M. Bird← K. Bielik
80'
F. Ladapo← M. Smith
83'
L. Sibley← G. Shinnie
86'
J. Lindsay
90'
C. Robertson← W. Harding

Possession

64%Derby

Shots

9Derby

Pass accuracy

56%Derby

Statistics

DerbyRotherham
Overview
64%Possession36%
9Total Shots10
7Corners2
15Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots10
4On Target3
3Off Target5
2Blocked2
7Inside Box9
2Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
429Total Passes237
328Accurate Passes142
76%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Derby vs Rotherham

Rotherham beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on January 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Lindsay (86').

Derby controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.