Rotherham 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

T. Blackett 86'

T. Conway 90+5', 81'

10/4/2023

Championship · Round 10AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham36%

×Draw28%

Bristol City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.17

Rotherham

1.18

Bristol City

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 59 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

1.30

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Bristol City

1.35

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

64%

Rotherham or Bristol City

72%

Draw or Bristol City

64%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

15%

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

69%

Rotherham 2+ goals

33%

Rotherham 3+ goals

12%

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

33%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

50%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rotherham scores more

36%

level

28%

Bristol City scores more

36%

Rotherham at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Conway

Bristol City · F

8.6

Match Events

43'

Oliver Rathbone

62'

G. Hall← L. Peltier

62'

S. Clucas← Cafú

66'

66'

74'

79'

79'

80'

80'

81'

T. Conway↳ K. Naismith

85'

H. Roberts← S. Bell

86'

T. Blackett↳ A. Appiah

90'

Haydon Roberts

90+5'

T. Conway↳ A. King

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamBristol

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots9

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.64

4Corners4

3Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots9

1On Target5

5Off Target2

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

335Total Passes464

218Accurate Passes351

65%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

3Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4

Championship: Rotherham 1–2 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Rotherham 2-1 in Championship on October 4, 2023.

Goals: T. Conway (81', 90+5'), T. Blackett (86').

Bristol City controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.

Rotherham vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Rotherham 1–2 Bristol City