Bristol City 2–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rotherham

A. Weimann 90+1'

T. Conway 15'

J. Hugill 67' (pen)

4/22/2023

Championship · Round 44Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bristol City57%

×Draw24%

Rotherham19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.85

Bristol City

1.69

Rotherham

0.85

Bristol City creates 99% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

0.48

1.22

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Bristol City

1.32

Rotherham

0.48

allows per match

Bristol City

1.22

Rotherham

2.07

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Rotherham-0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

81%

Bristol City or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

43%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

32%

Rotherham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

82%

Bristol City 2+ goals

50%

Bristol City 3+ goals

24%

Rotherham 1+ goals

57%

Rotherham 2+ goals

21%

Rotherham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

75%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.07 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.32 + Rotherham defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rotherham attack 0.48 + Bristol City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bristol City scores more

57%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

19%

Bristol City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Weimann

Bristol City · F

7.5

Match Events

15'

39'

46'

52'

55'

O. Rathbone← C. Coventry

55'

W. Harding← L. Peltier

56'

Cohen Bramall

66'

Alex Scott

67'

J. HugillPenalty

68'

73'

73'

78'

81'

S. Ferguson← Domingos Quina

84'

N. Wells← T. Conway

88'

Andreas Weimann

90+1'

A. Weimann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolRotherham

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots8

7Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots8

5On Target3

4Off Target4

0Blocked1

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

363Total Passes313

263Accurate Passes210

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Rotherham

Bristol City beat Rotherham 2-1 in Championship on April 22, 2023.

Goals: T. Conway (15'), J. Hugill (67' pen), A. Weimann (90+1').

Bristol City controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Rotherham