Bristol City 0–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

R. Wood 74'

M. Smith 44'

3/20/2021

Championship · Round 38Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bristol City57%

×Draw24%

Rotherham18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.83

Bristol City

1.68

Rotherham

0.83

Bristol City creates 102% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

0.47

1.19

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Rotherham

0.47

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Rotherham

2.06

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

82%

Bristol City or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

43%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

32%

Rotherham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

81%

Bristol City 2+ goals

50%

Bristol City 3+ goals

24%

Rotherham 1+ goals

56%

Rotherham 2+ goals

20%

Rotherham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

76%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bristol City scores more

57%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

18%

Bristol City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Johansson

Rotherham · G

7.5

Match Events

27'

Z. Vyner← T. Kalas

44'

M. Smith↳ W. Harding

60'

H. Lansbury← K. Palmer

60'

A. Semenyo← F. Diedhiou

65'

M. Olosunde← R. Giles

74'

R. Wood↳ D. Barlaser

75'

F. Jozefzoon← F. Ladapo

78'

79'

85'

87'

87'

S. MacDonald← D. Barlaser

88'

T. Clarke← L. Wing

90'

George Hirst

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolRotherham

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots7

7Corners2

8Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots7

1On Target4

3Off Target2

6Blocked1

3Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

418Total Passes210

325Accurate Passes119

78%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1