Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rotherham vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
M. Smith 41'
M. Crooks 4'
12/12/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham35%
×Draw28%
Bristol City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.17
Bristol City
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.00
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Rotherham
1.30
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
63%
Rotherham or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
65%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
15%
Bristol City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
69%
Rotherham 2+ goals
33%
Rotherham 3+ goals
11%
Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
34%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
49%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more
35%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
37%

Bristol City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
D. BarlaserRotherhamRotherham · M
8.7

Match Events

4'
M. Crooks↳ D. Barlaser
9'
Tommy Rowe
19'
Jamie Lindsay
41'
M. Smith↳ M. Olosunde
45'
Matthew Olosunde
46'
F. Diedhiou← J. Hunt
46'
A. Mariappa← Z. Vyner
63'
C. Brunt← T. Bakinson
65'
F. Ladapo← K. Vassell
82'
H. Massengo← Á. Nagy
82'
O. Edwards← A. Semenyo
88'
W. Harding← M. Olosunde
88'
B. Jones← J. Lindsay
90+2'
G. Hirst← M. Smith

Possession

48%Rotherham

Shots

22Rotherham

Pass accuracy

50%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamBristol
Overview
48%Possession52%
22Total Shots4
6Corners3
13Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots4
8On Target2
9Off Target2
5Blocked0
12Inside Box3
10Outside Box1
Passing
48%Possession52%
324Total Passes359
199Accurate Passes222
61%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Bristol City

Rotherham beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on December 12, 2020.

Goals: M. Crooks (4'), M. Smith (41').

Bristol City controlled possession (52%) and registered 4 shots to 22.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.