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Rotherham vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
10/3/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham35%
×Draw28%
Bristol City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.17
Bristol City
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.00
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Rotherham
1.30
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
63%
Rotherham or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
65%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
15%
Bristol City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
69%
Rotherham 2+ goals
33%
Rotherham 3+ goals
11%
Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
34%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
49%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more
35%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
37%

Bristol City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
N. MäenpääBristol CityBristol City · G
8.5

Match Events

61'
M. Taylor← C. ODowda
61'
M. Watkins← N. Eliasson
69'
A. Forde← J. Newell
75'
B. Wiles← M. Palmer
77'
Ryan Manning
77'
Lloyd Kelly
80'
J. Paterson← A. Weimann
84'
Jack Hunt
88'
Michael Smith
90'
Josh Brownhill

Possession

54%Rotherham

Shots

21Rotherham

Pass accuracy

52%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamBristol
Overview
54%Possession46%
21Total Shots13
6Corners3
12Fouls15
Shots
21Total Shots13
6On Target4
8Off Target7
7Blocked2
13Inside Box12
8Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
378Total Passes323
252Accurate Passes196
67%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Championship: Rotherham 0–0 Bristol City

Rotherham and Bristol City drew 0-0 in Championship on October 3, 2018.

Rotherham controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at New York Stadium in Rotherham.