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Rotherham vs Birmingham — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Birmingham
Birmingham
9/21/2024League OneLeague One · Round 7AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rotherham33%
×Draw26%
Birmingham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.23
Birmingham
1.38

Birmingham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.59
Birmingham
1.61

allows per match

Rotherham
1.14
Birmingham
0.87

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
60%
Rotherham or Birmingham
74%
Draw or Birmingham
67%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
14%
Birmingham wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
71%
Rotherham 2+ goals
35%
Rotherham 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
75%
Birmingham 2+ goals
40%
Birmingham 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
45%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.59 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.23

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Rotherham defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotherham scores more
33%
level
26%
Birmingham scores more
40%

Birmingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Rotherham 0–2 Birmingham

Birmingham beat Rotherham 2-0 in League One on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.