Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Birmingham vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
12/2/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Birmingham49%
×Draw26%
Rotherham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
0.99

Birmingham creates 52% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 92 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.26
Rotherham
0.68

allows per match

Birmingham
1.30
Rotherham
1.75

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
75%
Birmingham or Rotherham
74%
Draw or Rotherham
51%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
25%
Rotherham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
78%
Birmingham 2+ goals
44%
Birmingham 3+ goals
19%
Rotherham 1+ goals
63%
Rotherham 2+ goals
26%
Rotherham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
66%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 167 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.26 + Rotherham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rotherham attack 0.68 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham scores more
49%
level
26%
Rotherham scores more
25%

Birmingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Rotherham

Birmingham and Rotherham drew 0-0 in Championship on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.