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Birmingham vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
2/1/2025League OneLeague One · Round 30St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham57%
×Draw25%
Rotherham18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.59
Rotherham
0.78

Birmingham creates 104% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 89 away

creates per match

Birmingham
2.04
Rotherham
1.08

allows per match

Birmingham
0.48
Rotherham
1.15

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
82%
Birmingham or Rotherham
75%
Draw or Rotherham
43%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
30%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
80%
Birmingham 2+ goals
47%
Birmingham 3+ goals
21%
Rotherham 1+ goals
54%
Rotherham 2+ goals
18%
Rotherham 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
76%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rotherham attack 1.08 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Birmingham scores more
57%
level
25%
Rotherham scores more
18%

Birmingham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Rotherham

Birmingham beat Rotherham 2-1 in League One on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Birmingham.