Rotherham 1–3 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham

M. Crooks 22'

K. Mrabti 90+3'

Jota Peleteiro 63'

J. Maghoma 56'

4/22/2019

Championship · Round 44New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham37%

×Draw28%

Birmingham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.12

Rotherham

1.18

Birmingham

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

0.94

1.30

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Birmingham

1.35

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

66%

Rotherham or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

63%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Birmingham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

69%

Rotherham 2+ goals

33%

Rotherham 3+ goals

12%

Birmingham 1+ goals

67%

Birmingham 2+ goals

31%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

52%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more

37%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

34%

Rotherham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Jota Peleteiro

Birmingham · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

Semi Ajayi

22'

M. Crooks

50'

Richard Wood

56'

J. Maghoma↳ Jota Peleteiro

61'

J. Taylor← J. Newell

63'

Jota Peleteiro↳ Che Adams

69'

A. Forde← R. Wood

73'

Will Vaulks

75'

Gary Gardner

77'

K. Vassell← R. Williams

77'

K. Mrabti← Jota Peleteiro

81'

I. Vassell← L. Jutkiewicz

86'

M. Roberts← Che Adams

90+3'

K. Mrabti↳ J. Maghoma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamBirmingham

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots16

7Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots16

1On Target8

3Off Target6

5Blocked2

5Inside Box12

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

282Total Passes250

153Accurate Passes143

54%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4