Rostocker FC 2–8 Tennis Borussia: Result & Stats

Rostocker FC

FT

2 – 8

HT: 1 – 4

Tennis Borussia

M. Krizic 67' (OG)

A. El Mhamdi 44'

D. Danko 89' (pen), 58' (pen)

C. Werner 87'

V. Grobstich 80' (OG)

T. Oschmann 28'

E. J. Jobe 23'

J. Dethlefs 19', 15'

12/8/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15RFC Platz III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rostocker FC42%

×Draw21%

Tennis Borussia37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostocker FCExpected goals in this matchTennis Borussia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.91

Rostocker FC

2.02

Tennis Borussia

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

1.60

2.22

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Rostocker FC

1.81

Tennis Borussia

1.60

allows per match

Rostocker FC

2.22

Tennis Borussia

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

Tennis Borussia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw

63%

Rostocker FC or Tennis Borussia

79%

Draw or Tennis Borussia

58%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+

23%

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals

87%

Rostocker FC 2+ goals

60%

Rostocker FC 3+ goals

33%

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals

85%

Tennis Borussia 2+ goals

57%

Tennis Borussia 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)

53%

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + Tennis Borussia defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tennis Borussia attack 1.60 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rostocker FC scores more

42%

level

21%

Tennis Borussia scores more

37%

Rostocker FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rostocker FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Dethlefs

19'

J. Dethlefs

23'

E. J. Jobe

28'

T. Oschmann

44'

A. El Mhamdi

58'

D. DankoPenalty

67'

M. KrizicOwn goal

80'

V. GrobstichOwn goal

87'

C. Werner

89'

D. DankoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff