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Rostocker FC vs Tennis Borussia — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tennis Borussia
Tennis Borussia
K. Akogo 74', 64', 23' (pen)
D. Kremer 45'
R. Flores Kaya 90'
6/8/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Sportplatz am Damerower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rostocker FC42%
×Draw21%
Tennis Borussia37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostocker FC
2.02
Tennis Borussia
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Rostocker FC
1.81
Tennis Borussia
1.60

allows per match

Rostocker FC
2.22
Tennis Borussia
2.22

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par
Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

Tennis Borussia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw
63%
Rostocker FC or Tennis Borussia
79%
Draw or Tennis Borussia
58%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+
23%
Tennis Borussia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals
87%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
60%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
33%
Tennis Borussia 1+ goals
85%
Tennis Borussia 2+ goals
57%
Tennis Borussia 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
53%
Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + Tennis Borussia defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tennis Borussia attack 1.60 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rostocker FC scores more
42%
level
21%
Tennis Borussia scores more
37%

Rostocker FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rostocker FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
K. AkogoPenalty
45'
D. Kremer
64'
K. Akogo
68'
74'
K. Akogo
90'
R. Flores Kaya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rostocker FC vs Tennis Borussia

Rostocker FC beat Tennis Borussia 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 8, 2024.

Goals: K. Akogo (23' pen, 64', 74'), D. Kremer (45'), R. Flores Kaya (90').

The match was played at Sportplatz am Damerower Weg in Rostock.