Rosenborg 1–2 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lillestrom

O. Sæter 11'

A. Adams 90+2', 85'

7/9/2023

Eliteserien · Round 13Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Rosenborg46%

×Draw23%

Lillestrom31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.41

Rosenborg

1.75

Lillestrom

1.41

Rosenborg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.78

creates per match

1.58

1.23

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.78

Lillestrom

1.58

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.23

Lillestrom

1.73

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg+0.02on par

Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

69%

Rosenborg or Lillestrom

77%

Draw or Lillestrom

54%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

24%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

83%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

52%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

25%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

76%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

41%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

59%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.23 · 25 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.78 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Rosenborg defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosenborg scores more

46%

level

23%

Lillestrom scores more

31%

Rosenborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Adams

Lillestrom · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

O. Sæter

46'

Espen Bjornsen Garnas

61'

P. Skjelbred← S. Nypan

68'

O. Aga← O. Sæter

71'

M. Lundemo← T. Lehne Olsen

71'

L. Ranger← V. Dragsnes

71'

T. Svendsen← V. Hoff

77'

M. Bjørlo← A. Pereira

81'

U. Charles← Y. Ibrahimaj

82'

Ulrik Jenssen

85'

A. Adams↳ L. Ranger

90+3'

Edvard Sandvik Tagseth

90+6'

Tobias Hammer Svendsen

90+4'

Eskil Smidesang Edh

90'

Marius LundemoPenalty confirmed

90+2'

A. Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgLillestrom

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots17

2.04Expected Goals (xG)3.81

2Corners7

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target7

6Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box14

5Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

379Total Passes483

286Accurate Passes402

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–2 Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 2-1 in Eliteserien on July 9, 2023.

Goals: O. Sæter (11'), A. Adams (85', 90+2').

Lillestrom controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–2 Lillestrom