Lillestrom 1–1 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rosenborg

T. Lehne Olsen 9'

N. Holm 40'

9/15/2024

Eliteserien · Round 22Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lillestrom47%

×Draw23%

Rosenborg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.35

Lillestrom

1.75

Rosenborg

1.35

Lillestrom creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

1.74

creates per match

1.41

1.29

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.74

Rosenborg

1.41

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.29

Rosenborg

1.76

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.07on par

Rosenborg-0.05on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

70%

Lillestrom or Rosenborg

77%

Draw or Rosenborg

53%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

25%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

83%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

52%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

25%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

74%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

39%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

61%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.29 · 15 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.74 + Rosenborg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rosenborg attack 1.41 + Lillestrom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lillestrom scores more

47%

level

23%

Rosenborg scores more

30%

Lillestrom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Selnæs

Rosenborg · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

T. Lehne Olsen

21'

Tomáš Nemčík

23'

Uba Charles

39'

E. Ceïde← J. Reitan-Sunde

40'

N. Holm↳ A. Pereira

46'

E. Larsson← U. Charles

46'

O. Selnæs← S. Väänänen

57'

M. Lundemo← M. Diop

68'

Eric Larsson

72'

Moustafa Zeidan← S. Nypan

79'

E. Knudtzon← Y. Ibrahimaj

79'

G. Åsen← M. Karlsbakk

79'

K. Krygård← V. Hoff

86'

O. Sæter← A. Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromRosenborg

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots12

0.88Expected Goals (xG)1.46

5Corners5

15Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots12

1On Target2

4Off Target6

4Blocked4

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

290Total Passes472

186Accurate Passes389

64%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 1–1 Rosenborg

Lillestrom and Rosenborg drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 15, 2024.

Goals: T. Lehne Olsen (9'), N. Holm (40').

Rosenborg controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.

Lillestrom vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 1–1 Rosenborg