Lillestrom 3–0 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosenborg

T. Lehne Olsen 65', 58' (pen)

K. Tønnessen 41'

9/24/2023

Eliteserien · Round 23Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lillestrom47%

×Draw23%

Rosenborg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.35

Lillestrom

1.75

Rosenborg

1.35

Lillestrom creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

1.74

creates per match

1.41

1.29

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.74

Rosenborg

1.41

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.29

Rosenborg

1.76

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.07on par

Rosenborg-0.05on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

70%

Lillestrom or Rosenborg

77%

Draw or Rosenborg

53%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

25%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

83%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

52%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

25%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

74%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

39%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

61%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.29 · 15 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.74 + Rosenborg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rosenborg attack 1.41 + Lillestrom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lillestrom scores more

47%

level

23%

Rosenborg scores more

30%

Lillestrom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

V. Hoff

Lillestrom · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

ÍIsak Snær Þorvaldsson

26'

Ole Selnaes

41'

K. Tønnessen

45+3'

Thomas Lehne Olsen

46'

O. Skarsem← P. Skjelbred

53'

Jayden Nelson

57'

André Hansen

58'

T. Lehne OlsenPenalty

65'

T. Lehne Olsen

66'

Jayden Nelson

66'

Jayden Nelson

67'

S. Väänänen← S. Nypan

77'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul← E. Frederiksen

87'

K. Thompson← H. Skogvold

90+2'

D. Skaarud← Y. Ibrahimaj

90+5'

F. Elkær← K. Tønnessen

90+1'

M. Ceïde← L. Cornic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromRosenborg

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots6

3.90Expected Goals (xG)0.63

5Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots6

9On Target1

7Off Target3

4Blocked2

18Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

470Total Passes321

399Accurate Passes236

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 3–0 Rosenborg

Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 3-0 in Eliteserien on September 24, 2023.

Goals: K. Tønnessen (41'), T. Lehne Olsen (58' pen, 65').

Lillestrom controlled possession (60%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.

Lillestrom vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 3–0 Rosenborg