Rosenborg 3–3 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Haugesund

S. Reese 75' (OG)

A. Pereira 55'

S. Vecchia 36'

A. Ndour 40'

M. Sande 20'

A. Søderlund 11' (pen)

5/26/2022

Eliteserien · Round 8Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Rosenborg59%

×Draw21%

Haugesund20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.15

Rosenborg

2.10

Haugesund

1.15

Rosenborg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

1.85

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.85

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.22

Haugesund

2.36

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.12scores less

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

80%

Rosenborg or Haugesund

79%

Draw or Haugesund

41%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

36%

Haugesund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

88%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

62%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

35%

Haugesund 1+ goals

68%

Haugesund 2+ goals

32%

Haugesund 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

74%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.85 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.10

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Rosenborg defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rosenborg scores more

59%

level

21%

Haugesund scores more

20%

Rosenborg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Vecchia

Rosenborg · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

A. SøderlundPenalty

20'

M. Sande↳ A. Søderlund

36'

S. Vecchia

40'

A. Ndour

46'

E. Reitan← P. Vagić

46'

A. Pereira← E. Tagseth

46'

47'

47'

48'

55'

A. Pereira↳ S. Vecchia

60'

Egil Selvik

68'

C. Holse← A. Andersson

70'

J. Holtan← A. Søderlund

75'

S. ReeseOwn goal

81'

Mads Berg Sande

82'

H. Gong← J. Eskesen

82'

T. Naustdal← A. Ndour

82'

T. Pedersen← M. Sande

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgHaugesund

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots9

7Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target5

6Off Target2

1Blocked2

5Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

498Total Passes355

383Accurate Passes241

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2