Haugesund 1–2 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rosenborg

S. Diarra 3'

M. Holte 89'

H. Røsten 66'

8/6/2023

Eliteserien · Round 17Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund38%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.49

Haugesund

1.48

Rosenborg

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.35

1.62

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Rosenborg

1.35

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Rosenborg

1.81

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Rosenborg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

62%

Haugesund or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

18%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

43%

Haugesund 3+ goals

19%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

77%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

44%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

50%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.81 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rosenborg attack 1.35 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more

38%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

38%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

S. Diarra

Haugesund · F

7.7

Match Events

3'

S. Diarra↳ B. Njie

33'

H. Røsten← U. Yttergård Jenssen

45+3'

Tobias Borkeeiet

56'

Bruno LeiteGoal cancelled

64'

Bruno Leite

65'

A. Andersson← L. Cornic

65'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul← J. Nelson

66'

H. Røsten

70'

Bruno Leite

70'

Bruno Leite

79'

Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen

79'

ÍIsak Snær Þorvaldsson

79'

J. Eskesen← B. Njie

85'

M. Holte← Í. Þorvaldsson

85'

S. Väänänen← E. Tagseth

89'

M. Holte↳ S. Väänänen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundRosenborg

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots19

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.01

5Corners3

15Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots19

4On Target3

3Off Target9

0Blocked7

6Inside Box9

1Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

415Total Passes521

333Accurate Passes435

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Eliteserien: Haugesund 1–2 Rosenborg

Rosenborg beat Haugesund 2-1 in Eliteserien on August 6, 2023.

Goals: S. Diarra (3'), H. Røsten (66'), M. Holte (89').

Rosenborg controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Haugesund 1–2 Rosenborg