Haugesund 1–3 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rosenborg

Bruno Leite 50'

M. Broholm 90+6'

O. Sæter 43', 10'

4/21/2024

Eliteserien · Round 4Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Haugesund37%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.52

Haugesund

1.47

Rosenborg

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.11

creates per match

1.36

1.68

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Haugesund

1.11

Rosenborg

1.36

allows per match

Haugesund

1.68

Rosenborg

1.83

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.39scores less

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

61%

Haugesund or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

63%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

17%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

43%

Haugesund 3+ goals

18%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

78%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

45%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

49%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.68 · 29 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.11 + Rosenborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rosenborg attack 1.36 + Haugesund defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haugesund scores more

37%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

39%

Rosenborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Tangvik

Rosenborg · G

8.7

Match Events

10'

O. Sæter↳ S. Nypan

28'

Ole Selnaes

39'

Bruno Leite

43'

O. Sæter↳ E. Frederiksen

50'

Bruno Leite

54'

Ulrik Jenssen

67'

M. Broholm← E. Frederiksen

72'

S. Innvær← S. Tounekti

76'

Erlend Dahl Reitan

78'

S. Väänänen← O. Sæter

82'

L. Séoné← T. Nyhammer

85'

M. Sauer← Bruno Leite

86'

L. Cornic← U. Yttergård Jenssen

88'

Claus Niyukuri

90+6'

M. Broholm↳ J. Reitan-Sunde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundRosenborg

Overview

55%Possession45%

21Total Shots9

3.25Expected Goals (xG)2.53

11Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots9

10On Target6

3Off Target0

8Blocked3

11Inside Box8

10Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

473Total Passes403

411Accurate Passes335

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Rosenborg

Rosenborg beat Haugesund 3-1 in Eliteserien on April 21, 2024.

Goals: O. Sæter (10', 43'), Bruno Leite (50'), M. Broholm (90+6').

Haugesund controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Rosenborg