Haugesund 0–3 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rosenborg

U. Jenssen 59'

D. Islamovic 35'

A. Wichne 5' (OG)

9/14/2025

Eliteserien · Round 21Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Haugesund37%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.52

Haugesund

1.47

Rosenborg

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.11

creates per match

1.36

1.68

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Haugesund

1.11

Rosenborg

1.36

allows per match

Haugesund

1.68

Rosenborg

1.83

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.39scores less

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

61%

Haugesund or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

63%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

17%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

43%

Haugesund 3+ goals

18%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

78%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

45%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

49%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.68 · 29 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.11 + Rosenborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rosenborg attack 1.36 + Haugesund defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haugesund scores more

37%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

39%

Rosenborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

E. K. Ceide

Rosenborg · F

8.0

Match Events

5'

A. WichneOwn goal

35'

D. Islamovic↳ A. F. Witry

46'

C. Niyukuri← P. Bizoza

46'

T. Nyhammer← I. Camara

46'

B. Leite← A. Grindhaug

59'

U. Jenssen↳ E. K. Ceide

71'

M. Zeidan← E. K. Ceide

71'

A. Pereira← A. F. Witry

73'

H. V. Karlsen← S. Diarra

73'

L. Eide← M. Hope

74'

E. Reitan← U. Jenssen

83'

Niko Hämäläinen

84'

Dino Islamović

87'

Moustafa Zeidan

89'

A. Borgersen← D. Islamovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundRosenborg

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots14

0.38Expected Goals (xG)1.77

2Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots14

1On Target6

3Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

418Total Passes555

330Accurate Passes471

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4