Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente: Result & Stats

Rosario Central

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente

5/3/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 16Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Rosario Central45%

×Draw28%

Independiente27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.94

Rosario Central

1.29

Independiente

0.94

Rosario Central creates 37% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 123 away

1.43

creates per match

0.91

0.96

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.43

Independiente

0.91

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.96

Independiente

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

73%

Rosario Central or Independiente

72%

Draw or Independiente

55%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

20%

Independiente wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

72%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

37%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

14%

Independiente 1+ goals

61%

Independiente 2+ goals

24%

Independiente 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

62%

Independiente (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 127 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.43 + Independiente defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independiente attack 0.91 + Rosario Central defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rosario Central scores more

45%

level

28%

Independiente scores more

27%

Rosario Central at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff